Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 1.736154 1.805021 1.876724 1.957253 2.045546 2.139841 2.248748
2025-04-13 1.613155 1.708230 1.811324 1.932470 2.072361 2.230692 2.426281
2025-04-20 1.556910 1.670258 1.796825 1.950706 2.135798 2.355631 2.643850
2025-04-27 1.527221 1.656442 1.804396 1.989768 2.221237 2.509172 2.910286
2025-05-04 1.484704 1.623223 1.784784 1.991865 2.258120 2.602053 3.106846
2025-05-11 1.448061 1.593878 1.766658 1.992559 2.290731 2.689596 3.305565
2025-05-18 1.401553 1.549833 1.727458 1.962955 2.279691 2.714471 3.412747
2025-05-25 1.370068 1.522364 1.706908 1.955251 2.296173 2.777844 3.587509
2025-06-01 1.340545 1.495827 1.685884 1.945043 2.307441 2.833303 3.757020
2025-06-08 1.313112 1.470663 1.665225 1.933693 2.315503 2.883566 3.925213
2025-06-15 1.298335 1.460659 1.663301 1.947043 2.359220 2.992566 4.223345
2025-06-22 1.257503 1.416242 1.614927 1.894115 2.301793 2.933293 4.179053
2025-06-29 1.224010 1.381223 1.578938 1.858577 2.270857 2.919177 4.235264
2025-07-06 1.198364 1.355660 1.554685 1.838546 2.262313 2.942090 4.376973
2025-07-13 1.188522 1.350036 1.556458 1.855004 2.310221 3.066097 4.779499
2025-07-20 1.186225 1.353965 1.570922 1.890044 2.389523 3.256423 5.425726
2025-07-27 1.172139 1.341893 1.563090 1.891923 2.415311 3.350804 5.864215
2025-08-03 1.158429 1.329868 1.554806 1.892546 2.438770 3.443541 6.351552
2025-08-10 1.136124 1.305836 1.529180 1.866003 2.414634 3.437086 6.503396
2025-08-17 1.121500 1.291715 1.516894 1.859088 2.423482 3.500112 6.951414
2025-08-24 1.106824 1.277160 1.503543 1.849920 2.427693 3.553752 7.407073
2025-08-31 1.092478 1.262713 1.489914 1.839720 2.429329 3.601925 7.885918
2025-09-07 1.085929 1.258604 1.490675 1.851716 2.471086 3.746814 9.023660